In the wake of the recent meeting between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, one might ask what tangible outcomes emerged.
The answer is somewhat predictable: nothing groundbreaking.
The dialogue served to reiterate a mutual desire to maintain a steady course, avoiding any escalation into crisis—a stance that is far from trivial considering the near-confrontational standoffs in the Aegean Sea back in 2020 and the averted crisis at Evros with the influx of refugees orchestrated by Ankara.
The discussions, often trivialized as idle talk by critics, have notably reduced the strategic migration flows that once strained the Greek islands. A newfound harmony between the nations’ coast guards and a return to a form of normalcy in bilateral relations have been achieved, securing a period of relative tranquility amidst the region’s otherwise volatile conditions.
Yet, the longstanding issues between Greece and Turkey persist, including those which Turkey insistently and provocatively claims as part of its expansionist agenda.
The Cyprus issue remains at a stalemate, with both sides holding firm to their opposing views. Turkey’s continued dismissal of the Treaty of Lausanne’s provisions on territories and minorities remains a central tenet of its foreign policy. Erdogan and his ministers persist with their contentious rhetoric, met with the Greek side’s routine invocation of International Law.
No progress has been made, but no ground has been lost either. The status quo of “balanced inertia” continues, despite occasional provocations from Ankara.
There is no imminent threat of deterioration, yet there is also a noticeable reluctance to engage in meaningful, conciliatory dialogue on the major issues at hand.
Instead, progress is confined to “smaller” matters such as visas, economic ties, and trade—incremental steps that, while seemingly minor, contribute to a more positive climate.
The path to resolution remains arduous and fraught with difficulty. Any significant developments are likely to be influenced by the broader geostrategic and geopolitical shifts in the region and beyond.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the volatile situation in the Middle East with its potential for wider repercussions, Israel’s growing isolation, Russia’s assertive presence on various fronts, and the resurgence of nationalism and irredentism in the Balkans all contribute to a precarious global waiting game.
As this period of uncertainty persists, some anticipate favorable turns of events, others approach with trepidation, but all remain watchful.
Amidst these considerations, the upcoming U.S. elections loom large, with the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the international arena adding to the uncertainty.
For Erdogan, especially given the strained relations with Washington, the possibility of Trump’s comeback could represent a glimmer of hope. Until then, though, Ankara is likely to hold off on any significant initiatives, opting for a cautious approach without provoking or making substantial changes to its current strategies.
Navigating relations with Turkey requires vigilance, ensuring that this unpredictable nation, particularly under its current leadership, remains dormant.
Translated by ANTHEE CARASSAVA