I am baffled by some celebrations in Greece over the supposed victory of the Left in the French elections.
The French, who are undoubtedly more familiar with their political landscape, recognize that the only real victory in these snap elections was Emmanuel Macron's triumph over the far-right.
No party or coalition won an outright majority in the French National Assembly. Therefore, the Left did not make a triumphant return to history, nor did Macron secure a decisive victory.
As Gérard Grunberg, a political scientist and research director at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in Paris, explained, the result was a temporary alliance between the Left and Macron against Le Pen, leading to "an ungovernable country for a while." Macron's tactical maneuver against Le Pen was celebrated across Europe.
Even Politico questioned if this marked the end of her: "Having rejected the anti-European, pro-Russian Le Pen three times (or four, counting her weak performance in 2012), are French voters ever likely to elect her? Probably not," the article noted.
The current problem, in the absence of a clear majority—or even a dominant minority—for the first time in the 60 years of the Fifth Republic, is how long France will remain ungovernable. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's demand to "be called to govern," despite the New People's Ecological and Social Union (NUPES) coalition being over 100 seats short of a majority, has stalled political developments and the formation of a government.
In this atmosphere of uncertainty and tension, Emmanuel Macron, in a letter, urged political parties to "rise to the occasion and cooperate" to form a coalition government.
However, he set clear boundaries, inviting only political forces "aligned with democratic institutions, the rule of law, parliamentarism, a pro-European stance, and French independence" to engage in sincere and honest dialogue to build a stable, necessarily pluralistic, government majority.
This excluded the far-right Le Pen, Eurosceptic and linked to Putin's Russia, and the far-left Mélenchon, accused of "anti-parliamentarism" and "anti-Semitism."
Currently, Mélenchon is at the center of discussions about France's uncertain political future. Will his far-left agenda prevail, or that of the more moderate leftists within NUPES?
Even within the left-wing coalition, many see him as unfit for the prime minister's role and urge him to set aside personal ambitions for the common good. "If he truly wants to help NUPES, he needs to step aside," said François Hollande, former president with the Socialist Party and current coalition MP. "He just needs to shut up."
But this is unlikely. Mélenchon is charismatic and populist, with a high opinion of himself. Sorbonne professor Arnaud Benedetti suggested that Mélenchon aims to dismantle the center so he can stand alone against Le Pen in the 2027 presidential elections.
After the elections, he declared that "we won't change a single word in our political program," which is based on fierce hostility towards Israel, suspicion of Europe, anti-Americanism, and a pro-immigration stance.
At his post-election rally in Place de la République in Paris, there were more Palestinian than French flags, and the majority of protesters were of Arab and African descent. His economic proposals form a welfare-based, egalitarian manifesto, a vision hostile to capitalism that few are willing to support.
No one believes Macron will appoint him as prime minister. Many officials from all parties threaten a veto or a no-confidence motion if Mélenchon heads a coalition or minority government. In his recent letter, the French president, with careful wording, excluded both Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise from the future government.
He successfully neutralised the former.
The question now is whether he has enough allies to disarm the latter.
Translated by ANTHEE CARASSAVA