Kostas Synolakis, a leading expert in natural disasters, has outlined a formidable, though improbable, seismic scenario.
Speaking on ERT’s “Studio 4,” Mr. Synolakis discussed the potential for a significant seismic event along the Greek arc.
The expert pointed to historical data to support the possibility, however remote, of an earthquake reaching a magnitude of 8.5 on the Richter scale.
He cited the massive earthquake that struck western Crete in 365 AD, which led to the decline of Alexandria as a global city due to a subsequent tsunami. The earthquake’s magnitude can be inferred from geological uplifts still visible today.
For instance, at the Falasarna beach in western Crete, an ancient harbour now sits 8 metres above sea level, and in Sfakia, the old coastline has risen by 2 metres. These geological shifts are visible to the naked eye, not just to geologists, Mr. Synolakis explained.
“The size of the earthquake is calculated based on these observations… What kind of earthquake could cause such displacements that we still see today, and what was its magnitude?” Mr. Synolakis asked.
“The answer is approximately 8.5 degrees. It’s a statistical scenario because it has happened before. It’s an indication, not a prediction. The fact that it has happened in the past is an indication that it could happen again.”
The professor’s statements have sparked discussions on Greece’s preparedness for such a natural disaster, given the historical precedent and the physical evidence that underscores the region’s seismic potential.