Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed Greece's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, maintaining the country's investment grade status initially granted in late 2023.
The positive assessment reflects Greece's continued fiscal progress and economic stability.
Fitch highlighted several key factors supporting the rating, including strong income per capita levels, robust governance indicators, and a credible policy framework backed by EU and eurozone membership. The agency also noted the significant fiscal and macroeconomic adjustments Greece has made in recent years.
Fitch expects Greece to maintain a sound fiscal policy, with a budget deficit estimated around 1% of GDP this year, significantly lower than the current 'BBB' median and the EU average. The agency forecasts a primary budget surplus above 2% of GDP until at least 2026 and a continued decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio, thanks to steady primary surpluses, low interest costs, and nominal GDP growth.
While Fitch forecasts modest economic growth of around 2% over the medium term, the agency acknowledges the lasting impact of Greece's debt crisis, including a low investment rate and persistent external imbalances.
Despite these challenges, Greece's economic growth is expected to outpace that of the eurozone. Fitch also highlighted the recent upgrades of Greece's four systemic banks, reflecting improvements in the operating environment and credit profiles.
The banks maintain high liquidity and strong profitability, supported by higher interest rates and balance sheet clean-up.
While Moody's remains the only major credit rating agency yet to upgrade Greece to investment grade, Fitch's affirmation reinforces the positive trajectory of the Greek economy and its commitment to fiscal responsibility.